Week 9 Waiver Wire Pickups!

It's that time of the week again when I offer suggestions for panicking fantasy football team owners. If you have a position that you need filled for this week only, these are the guys you should look at that have a good chance of being available in your league (owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues).

Let's take a look at the results from last week and my suggestions for this week.

Reminder: For each position, I will show my results, Matthew Berry's results, and the actual top 3 choices for the week. Each player will be given a rank of where he stood. For example: RB2 means that player was good enough to be a 2nd RB in a 12-team league (top 24 RB for the week). 1 QB, 3 RBs, 4 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 Def are the tiers ranked. (3 RBs and 4 WRs to deal with Flex positions)

Quarterback

Last Week:

Me
QB	Name	Points
1	Ryan Tannehill	13	Bust
2	Carson Palmer	21	QB1
3	Alex Smith	9	Bust
MB
1	Carson Palmer	21	QB1
2	Ryan Tannehill	13	Bust
3	Alex Smith	9	Bust
Real
1	Kyle Orton	25	QB1
2	Carson Palmer	21	QB1
3	Colt McCoy	16	Bust

Matthew Berry and myself picked the same 3 QBs. We each picked 1 QB that was worth starting (Carson Palmer). The only other QB worth a start was Kyle Orton.

My suggestions for this week:

1) Alex Smith (19.8 percent owned)

Alex Smith is a very capable quarterback. He generally doesn't put up huge numbers, but he plays the Jets this week. The same Jets defense that let Kyle Orton put up 4 passing TDs on 17 passing attempts. Alex Smith doesn't have Sammy Watkins, but I still think he's a good play simply because the Jets are terrible against the pass. The Chiefs tend to rely on the run with Charles and Davis... But the only thing the Jets can do well is stop the run. I suspect the Chiefs will have to do more passing than normal. I'm starting him in one of my leagues as a spot start for Aaron Rodgers, who is on a Bye, and I'm feeling pretty good about it.

2) Carson Palmer (14.7 percent owned)

Palmer is a pretty good QB. In the 4 games that he has played this year, he has put up 20, 18, 16, and 21 points. That puts him 6th in fantasy points per game, ahead of guys like Drew Brees. Dallas is a tough opponent, but I still like Palmer this week and every week. He's worth a roster spot in most leagues at the very least, and he should be starting in many more leagues than he is right now.

3) Teddy Bridgewater (9.3 percent owned)

A bit of a dark horse here. Outside of week 4, Bridgewater has been pretty bad... But I think last week was a good sign. He didn't turn the ball over and put up almost 250 yards passing. The Redskins are horrible against the pass. The encouraging sign from last week plus a bad opposing defense should mean a good performance this week. There is a LOT of risk here, however... So he's only for the truly desperate.

Running Back

Last Week:

Me
RB
1	Isaiah Crowell	0	Bust
2	Jerick McKinnon	8	RB2
3	Roy Helu	3	Bust
MB
1	Jerick McKinnon	8	RB2
2	Ronnie Hillman	12	RB2
3	Tre Mason	3	Bust
Real
1	Lorenzo Taliaferro	18	RB1
2	Juwan Thompson	14	RB1
3	Theo Riddick	13	RB2

Not a great showing from me. Crowell sat for West for some reason. Helu didn't get the playing time because Morris was playing well and the Redskins weren't getting destroyed by the Cowboys like I expected. McKinnon was good enough to start and he will be for the rest of the year. He's now over 50% owned as he should be. Matthew Berry had McKinnon as well, but also had Ronnie Hillman, who had a good enough day to be RB2 eligible.

Neither of us got Taliaferro or Thompson... Both of which managed to vulture 2 TDs. Neither is a good play going forward. They are strictly goalline backs who will depend on the team getting a couple yards from the endzone to provide any value. That's way too risky.

My recommendations for this week:

1) Denard Robinson (30.5 percent owned)

I am incredibly surprised that Robinson continues to look as good as he does. I still don't think it will last... But you might as well ride him while he's hot.

2) Ronnie Hillman (39.6 percent owned)

Double digit points for 3 weeks straight on a very good offense against a team that struggles against the run. Sounds like a sure thing to me. By the way, Hillman should be owned in every league, even if you don't need to start him. He looks surprisingly good and he won't be losing his job any time soon.

3) Charles Sims (1.2 percent owned)

HUGE risk. I mean, he might not even play. Keep an eye on his status. As of right now, he hasn't been activated off the IR... But he is expected to be activated before the game on Sunday. The Buccaneers are desperate to find a running back they can trust. They're expected to give Sims a chance to show what he can do. If he shows ANY sign of being decent, they'll keep feeding him the ball. He's a big risk to start this week, but he's definitely worth a stash in deeper leagues (12 or more teams).

Wide Receiver

Last Week:

Me
WR
1	Doug Baldwin	6	WR3
2	Jordan Matthews	4	WR4
3	Malcom Floyd	5	WR4
MB
1	Doug Baldwin	6	WR3
2	Andre Holmes	12	WR2
3	Allen Robinson	14	WR2
Real
1	Martavius Bryant	20	WR1
2	Brandon LaFell	18	WR1
3	Donte Moncrief	17	WR1
3	John Brown	17	WR1

Meh. Matthew Berry got me here, although neither of us got the top WRs to pick up last week.

My suggestions for this week:

1) Andrew Hawkins (16 percent owned)

Tampa Bay is the worst fantasy-wise against WRs. Hawkins has separated himself as the definitive starter until Josh Gordon comes back in a few weeks. Jordan Cameron is probably out a week or 2, and that means the Browns will be leaning on Hawkins.

2) Stevie Johnson (5.9 percent owned)

Yes, THAT Stevie Johnson. A good opponent for Johnson to go up against and the Niners have been looking in his direction more as of late, including in the red zone.

3) Martavis Bryant

Bryant split WR2 duties with Markus Wheaton last week, but Bryant was the guy that Roethlisberger seemed to like more. I expect Bryant to get the nod more over Wheaton and that should mean his good production will continue.

Tight End

Last Week:

Me
TE
1	Dwayne Allen	8	TE1
2	Owen Daniels	0	Bust
3	Charles Clay	0	Bust
MB
1	Zach Ertz	4	Bust
2	Owen Daniels	0	Bust
3	Dwayne Allen	8	TE1
Real
1	Heath Miller	17	TE1
2	Tim Wright	12	TE1
3	Dwayne Allen	8	TE1
3	Mychal Rivera	8	TE1
3	Luke Willson	8	TE1

Both Berry and I got Dwayne Allen, who continues to look good. Owen Daniels ended up not even playing. After I made my post last week, it was announced that Daniels had a knee scope. He didn't play last Sunday and he probably won't play this week.

My suggestions for this week:

1) Dwayne Allen (45.7 percent owned)

Why is he still available in so many leagues. He has made his way to 7th best fantasy TE for the season and he continues to be Andrew Luck's preferred TE target, especially in the red zone.

2) Larry Donnell (49.8 percent owned)

He's really only under 50% owned because he had a Bye last week... But he's just barely eligible for this list. Indianapolis struggles against TEs and Eli seems to like Donnell. Hopefully he learned over the Bye week how to hold onto the football.

3) Jace Amaro (2.3 percent owned)

I struggled to make this pick. Suggesting anyone from the Jets seems like a terrible idea... But, Amaro continues to be targeted a decent amount and the Chiefs have struggled at times against TEs. He's not the best looking TE to pick... But if Allen and Donnell are both taken in your league (and there's a decent chance they are), Amaro might be the guy for you... Just try not to throw up when you hit that submit button to make the add.

Defense/Special Teams

Last Week:

Me
Def
1	Dolphins	26	DEF1
2	Buccaneers	1	Bust
3	Vikings	20	DEF1
MB
1	Dolphins	26	DEF1
2	Texans	7	DEF1
3	Cowboys	2	Bust
Real
1	Dolphins	26	DEF1
2	Vikings	20	DEF1
3	Browns	11	DEF1

Minor victory for me here. It looks like I was right about the Vikings. The only reason they didn't have a ton of fantasy points was because they went up against good offenses. They are a situational defense, but if they are playing a mediocre opponent, they are worth starting.

Also, as I have said the past 2 weeks and will continue to say weekly, starting a defense that is playing the Jaguars is always a good choice. That should be the #1 defense choice every single week. No exceptions. That team will always be in my suggestions list unless they are owned in too many leagues. Such is the case this week, as the Bengals are owned in 85.3 percent of leagues... But if you are in 1 of the leagues in the other 14.7 percent, pick them up immediately and start them.

My suggestions for this week:

1) Minnesota Vikings (9.9 percent owned)

Like I said before, Minnesota's defense is good. It's a less surprising pick now. Their 20 point week pushed them to 6th best fantasy defense this year... However, they still aren't owned in most leagues. They're playing Washington, and it looks like RG3 will be making his comeback. That adds a bit of risk, but I doubt RG3 will be himself in his 1st week back.

2) Cleveland Browns (22.1 percent owned)

This is a decent defense that has put up 2 straight good fantasy weeks. Admittedly, it was against 2 of the worst offenses in the league, Oakland and Jacksonville... But they go up against another bad offense, Tampa Bay. Expect another decent week.

3) Washington ThatTeamNameThatIGuessWe'reNotAllowedToSayAnymore (19.7 percent owned)

If Washington can stop the Cowboys from scoring more than 17 points, they should easily be able to handle Minnesota... And I know I suggested Bridgewater as an option at QB... But a rookie QB means there's a better chance for a Pick-6.

Week 8 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups

Well, my first week of predicting breakout performers in fantasy football is in the books. How did I do? Not great. Of the 15 picks that I made, only 2 were good options, 2 others were okay options, and the rest were complete busts. But that's okay. It was only 1 week... And as every good experimenter knows, sample size is important when evaluating results... And 1 week is a very small sample size. So, let's keep it going. I'm sure my horrible picks were just a fluke.

Just for fun, I have decided to track all of my picks and compare them to a well known fantasy "expert", Matthew Berry. It makes sense from an experimental standpoint as well... I want to see how easy it is to be an expert... So I should be comparing myself to experts to see if I can do it. So, for each position, I listed my top picks that are available in over 50% of ESPN leagues, Matthew Berry's top picks with the same criterion, and the actually real life best players that were available.

So, here are the results for each position followed by my predictions for Week 8:

Quarterback

Week 7 Results

Me
QB	Name	Points
1	Brian Hoyer	4	Bust
2	Charlie Whitehurst	13	Bust
3	Joe Flacco	14	Bust
MB
1	Carson Palmer	16	QB1
2	Joe Flacco	14	Bust
3	Kirk Cousins	1	Bust
Real
1	Ryan Tannehill	23	QB1
2	Ryan Fitzpatrick	17	QB1
3	Carson Palmer	16	QB1
3	Geno Smith	16	QB1

A QB1 rating means that the quarterback was in the top 12 QBs for last week. Essentially, they were a viable 1st QB starter in a 12-team league. This is based on the standard ESPN scoring system. The results might differ depending on your league settings. Generally speaking in ESPN standard leagues, 10-15 points is not horrendous and anything over 15 points is good... So I don't think Whitehurst and Flacco were bad options if you were desperate for a QB... But, technically, they were not in the top 12 QBs and there were some QBs available in most leagues that did fall within the top 12.

Week 8 Predictions

1) Ryan Tannehill (21.6 Percent Owned)

2) Carson Palmer (10.2 Percent Owned)

3) Alex Smith (17.8 Percent Owned)

These guys seem like no-brainers to me. They are all decent quarterbacks with easy match-ups this week. Honorable mention goes to Teddy Bridgewater this week. He has a very easy matchup... And with his running ability, he has the potential to put up lots of fantasy points. If you are really desperate and you need some big points to win against your opponent this week, you might want to consider Teddy over these other guys.

Running Back

Week 7 Results

Me
RB
1	Isaiah Crowell	1	Bust
2	Jonathan Stewart	6	RB3
3	Brandon Bolden	0	Bust
MB
1	Ronnie Hillman	21	RB1
2	Jerick McKinnon	10	RB2
3	Jonathan Stewart	6	RB3
Real
1	Ronnie Hillman	21	RB1
2	Denard Robinson	18	RB1
3	Stepfan Taylor	17	RB1

For running backs, I have included 3 tiers: RB1, RB2, and RB3... Which essentially breaks down to top-12, top-24, and top-36, respectively. Most fantasy leagues allow for 2 RBs and a Flex option that could be a 3rd RB. I went with some riskier options than Matthew Berry and it shows.

Week 8 Predictions

1) Isaiah Crowell (27.8 Percent Owned)

2) Jerick McKinnon (33.3 Percent Owned)

3) Roy Helu (34.8 Percent Owned)

I'm still a fan of Crowell. The Browns couldn't get anything going against the Jaguars for some reason... But it's a nice match-up for Crowell this week. McKinnon is a beast and should feast on the terrible Bucs run-defense. Helu is an interesting choice, but here's my reasoning: Washington plays the Cowboys this week, a team that has been very good so far this year. I think the Redskins are going to be losing for most of the game... And while Alfred Morris is definitely the starter, he is a liability in the passing game. Once Washington is forced into a 1-dimensional passing attack, Helu is the guy that will see most of the snaps. On top of that Colt McCoy is expected to start. It's going to be Checkdown City. "McCoy dumps it off to Helu" is a sentence the announcers should be saying quite a few times on Monday.

Wide Receiver

Week 7 Results

Me
WR
1	Andre Holmes	3	Bust
2	Markus Wheaton	0	Bust
3	Brandon LaFell	5	WR4
MB
1	Andre Holmes	3	Bust
2	Odell Beckham Jr	16	WR1
3	Brandon LaFell	5	WR4
Real
1	Doug Baldwin	18	WR1
2	Kenny Stills	16	WR1
2	Odell Beckham Jr	16	WR1

I went to 4 tiers with wide receivers because some leagues allow 3 WRs and a Flex option. Matthew Berry and I only differed on 1 pick: I dropped the ball with a goose egg and Berry picked a top option with Beckham.

Week 8 Predictions

1) Doug Baldwin (33.7 Percent Owned)

2) Jordan Matthews (6.7 Percent Owned)

3) Malcom Floyd (17.7 Percent Owned)

Honestly, I'm not a huge fan of any of these guys this week... If you're desperate for a WR, you're in rough shape. There's just not much to choose from.

Tight End

Week 7 Results

Me
TE
1	Travis Kelce	3	Bust
2	Dwayne Allen	11	TE1
3	Jared Cook	2	Bust
MB
1	Travis Kelce	3	Bust
2	Jared Cook	2	Bust
3	Jermaine Gresham	4	Bust
Real
1	Gavin Escobar	18	TE1
2	Cooper Helfet	12	TE1
3	Jeff Cumberland	11	TE1
3	Charles Clay	11	TE1
3	Dwayne Allen	11	TE1

Ah, the only position that I actually did better than Matthew Berry. In your face! The top TE option who was available in most leagues ended up being Gavin Escobar... A player that most people have never heard of before. Welcome to fantasy football. Heck the top 2 options were essentially no-names to the vast majority of people.

Week 8 Predictions

1) Dwayne Allen (32 Percent Owned)

2) Owen Daniels (25.2 Percent Owned)

3) Charles Clay (13.2 Percent Owned)

I'm sticking with the Allen train. Andrew Luck prefers Allen to Fleener in an offense that can put up points. Daniels has a very easy match-up. Clay is very TD dependent, but I like him this week.

Defense/Special Teams

Week 7 Results

Me
Def
1	Browns	8	DEF1
2	Bears	5	Bust
3	Texans	4	Bust
MB
1	Ravens	14	DEF1
2	Browns	8	DEF1
3	Bears	5	Bust
Real
1	Jaguars	15	DEF1
2	Vikings	14	DEF1
3	Ravens	14	DEF1

Week 8 Predictions 

1) Miami Dolphins (36.9 Percent Owned)

2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (39.4 Percent Owned)

3) Minnesota Vikings (3.5 Percent Owned)

The Dolphins are playing the Jaguars. Tampa Bay has a good match-up. The Vikings did well against a pretty talented Bills offense. They struggled against some great offenses earlier in the year, which makes their average fantasy points per game deceptive. In 7 games, 5 of them were against the Patriots, the Saints, the Falcons, the Packers, and the Lions. Those are some tough offensive opponents. They had double digit weeks against the Rams and the Bills.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Waiver Wire Pickups

I see "experts" all the time on ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, etc talking about fantasy football. So many people who play fantasy football go to these people and ask for advice... And honestly, I don't think their advice is all that great. I don't see any of these "experts" making extremely bold predictions that come true often. It's usually just a bunch of obvious observations. This player has better numbers than that player. This player has an easy matchup this week.

And so that got me thinking. I want to see how easy it is to give advice. Obviously, the best way to do that is to attempt it myself, post my predictions publicly, and track my results.

So for at least the next few weeks, I'm going to offer some waiver wire pick-up advice. For each position, I'm going to point out 3 players that are unowned in over 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues that I think have potential for the upcoming week. The idea is that if you're panicking about a specific position on your roster for the upcoming week, these are some guys that you might be able to pick up for a 1 week miracle start. If you are reading this, I probably wouldn't listen to my advice quite yet. I should probably prove that I have the ability to make these predictions first before you take them seriously... But feel free to read on for entertainment purposes.

Without further ado, here are my Week 7 Waiver Wire Pickups.

Quarterback
1) Brian Hoyer
Hoyer is owned in only 7.2 percent of leagues and for good reason. He's not a sexy fantasy quarterback by any means. However, he is consistent and he rarely turns the ball over. Jordan Cameron is finally back healthy, which gives him a legitimate target to throw to... Add those factors to the fact that the Browns are playing the Jaguars this season. This has 300 yards and 2-3 TDs written all over it.
2) Jake Locker/Charlie Whitehurst
Locker is owned in 4.6 percent of leagues. Whitehurst in 0.6 percent. Keep an eye on the injury report. Locker's availability is still up in the air. Obviously this is a much better option if Locker plays... But the matchup with Washington is a juicy one.
3) Joe Flacco
Flacco is only owned in 44.5 percent of leagues, which is a bit surprising to me. Flacco has proven year after year that he is more than adequate and he has a pretty solid receiving corps. The matchup with the Falcons isn't amazing, but if you'd rather go with talent over matchup, this is your guy.

Running Backs
1) Isaiah Crowell
How is this guy only owned in 17 percent of leagues? Has anyone watched him run? Yes, he's going to split time with Ben Tate... But Crowell is a great runner, and a matchup against the Jaguars is good for every offensive player. The Browns are going to win this game easily... And when they have the lead in the second half, they're going to turn to the running game. I expect both Tate and Crowell to have pretty good days.
2) Jonathan Stewart
Stewart is owned in 25.4 percent of leagues. He has a pretty good matchup against the Packers... But it is a dangerous one. This game could definitely become a shootout. Stewart is not guaranteed to play either, coming off of an injury. But if he does play, I think he's guy worthy of consideration if you're desperate. If he plays, he's the guy. No other running back on that team really deserves carries. Cam Newton has his legs back, which sounds like a negative... But it actually opens up the offense more. This should give Stewart bigger lanes to run through.
3) Brandon Bolden
Bolden is owned in 2.1 percent of leagues. Ridley is out for the year and Vareen can't carry the load. Bolden is going to see plenty of action... And the Pats are playing the Jets. The Jets are terrible. Admittedly, run defense is 1 thing the Jets are competent at... But the Pats will be winning by a large number by the 2nd half, which should give the RBs plenty of touches. James White could steal some carries from Bolden, but I don't think it will be significant.

Wide Receivers
1) Andre Holmes
Holmes is only owned in 6.6 percent of leagues and he's a boom-or-bust kind of guy. He's either going to give you 15 points or 1. Arizona's defense has struggled against WRs and Holmes's speed will be tough to matchup against. I'm going with the 15 points on this one.
2) Markus Wheaton
Wheaton is owned in 16.1 percent of leagues and I think he's due. This guy looks good. Not amazing, but good. Roethlisberger has to start getting him the ball sometime... And this matchup against Houston might be the perfect opportunity.
3) Brandon LaFell
LaFell is owned in only 5 percent of leagues. This guy is the definition of boom-or-bust. Give me the boom on this one. The Jets are seriously bad.

Tight Ends
1) Travis Kelce
This guy should be owned in every league. Somehow he's only owned in 48.6 percent. That's all you need to know. He is good enough that he should be owned in every single league. So if he's not owned in yours, go get him.
2) Dwayne Allen
Allen is owned in 18.9 percent of leagues. His only issue is that Fleener is still there. Indy has a great matchup for the TEs, so either one could be a good play here. I'd go with Allen as he seems to be getting more volume than Fleener.
3) Jared Cook
Jared Cook is owned in 11.1 percent of leagues and he is the stereotypical "I need a TE to start this week" kind of guy. He's usually decent. Don't expect much out of him, though. He is a good option if the rest of your team is solid. If you just need a guy to go in there and get you 5-10 points, he's your man. If you think you need more than that to win this week, look elsewhere.

Defense/Special Teams
I am a big proponent of streaming defenses weekly. If that's you as well, these are the defenses you should be looking at.
1) Cleveland Browns D/ST
They're playing the Jaguars.
2) Chicago Bears D/ST
The Bears are the 9th best fantasy defense this year and they play the ho-hum Dolphins. Don't expect a lot here, but it's a decent matchup. You could do worse.
3) Houston Texans D/ST
Houston plays the Steelers, which isn't the most amazing matchup... But the Steelers haven't been playing well this season. They just got beat pretty badly by the Browns... And the Texans defense has quietly been a high quality fantasy defense. I don't think I'd feel too comfortable starting them... But if you're desperate, it's a way you can go.

Kickers
Hahahaha just kidding. Pshhh. Kickers. Need a kicker? Grab the one that is available in your league and has scored the most points this year. There's no reason to think much deeper than that. If you're insane, you can look at the kicker's offense and the opposing defense. Kickers generally do best when they have a pretty good offense against an average defense. You want the opposing defense to be bad enough to give up a lot of yards but good enough to stop an offense from scoring a lot of TDs. If you want to do that research, that's all you.