Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Week 9 Waiver Wire Pickups!

It's that time of the week again when I offer suggestions for panicking fantasy football team owners. If you have a position that you need filled for this week only, these are the guys you should look at that have a good chance of being available in your league (owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues).

Let's take a look at the results from last week and my suggestions for this week.

Reminder: For each position, I will show my results, Matthew Berry's results, and the actual top 3 choices for the week. Each player will be given a rank of where he stood. For example: RB2 means that player was good enough to be a 2nd RB in a 12-team league (top 24 RB for the week). 1 QB, 3 RBs, 4 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 Def are the tiers ranked. (3 RBs and 4 WRs to deal with Flex positions)

Quarterback

Last Week:
Me
QBNamePoints
1Ryan Tannehill13Bust
2Carson Palmer21QB1
3Alex Smith9Bust
MB
1Carson Palmer21QB1
2Ryan Tannehill13Bust
3Alex Smith9Bust
Real
1Kyle Orton25QB1
2Carson Palmer21QB1
3Colt McCoy16Bust

Matthew Berry and myself picked the same 3 QBs. We each picked 1 QB that was worth starting (Carson Palmer). The only other QB worth a start was Kyle Orton.

My suggestions for this week:
1) Alex Smith (19.8 percent owned)
Alex Smith is a very capable quarterback. He generally doesn't put up huge numbers, but he plays the Jets this week. The same Jets defense that let Kyle Orton put up 4 passing TDs on 17 passing attempts. Alex Smith doesn't have Sammy Watkins, but I still think he's a good play simply because the Jets are terrible against the pass. The Chiefs tend to rely on the run with Charles and Davis... But the only thing the Jets can do well is stop the run. I suspect the Chiefs will have to do more passing than normal. I'm starting him in one of my leagues as a spot start for Aaron Rodgers, who is on a Bye, and I'm feeling pretty good about it.

2) Carson Palmer (14.7 percent owned)
Palmer is a pretty good QB. In the 4 games that he has played this year, he has put up 20, 18, 16, and 21 points. That puts him 6th in fantasy points per game, ahead of guys like Drew Brees. Dallas is a tough opponent, but I still like Palmer this week and every week. He's worth a roster spot in most leagues at the very least, and he should be starting in many more leagues than he is right now.

3) Teddy Bridgewater (9.3 percent owned)
A bit of a dark horse here. Outside of week 4, Bridgewater has been pretty bad... But I think last week was a good sign. He didn't turn the ball over and put up almost 250 yards passing. The Redskins are horrible against the pass. The encouraging sign from last week plus a bad opposing defense should mean a good performance this week. There is a LOT of risk here, however... So he's only for the truly desperate.

Running Back

Last Week:
Me
RB
1Isaiah Crowell0Bust
2Jerick McKinnon8RB2
3Roy Helu3Bust
MB
1Jerick McKinnon8RB2
2Ronnie Hillman12RB2
3Tre Mason3Bust
Real
1Lorenzo Taliaferro18RB1
2Juwan Thompson14RB1
3Theo Riddick13RB2
Not a great showing from me. Crowell sat for West for some reason. Helu didn't get the playing time because Morris was playing well and the Redskins weren't getting destroyed by the Cowboys like I expected. McKinnon was good enough to start and he will be for the rest of the year. He's now over 50% owned as he should be. Matthew Berry had McKinnon as well, but also had Ronnie Hillman, who had a good enough day to be RB2 eligible.

Neither of us got Taliaferro or Thompson... Both of which managed to vulture 2 TDs. Neither is a good play going forward. They are strictly goalline backs who will depend on the team getting a couple yards from the endzone to provide any value. That's way too risky.

My recommendations for this week:
1) Denard Robinson (30.5 percent owned)
I am incredibly surprised that Robinson continues to look as good as he does. I still don't think it will last... But you might as well ride him while he's hot.

2) Ronnie Hillman (39.6 percent owned)
Double digit points for 3 weeks straight on a very good offense against a team that struggles against the run. Sounds like a sure thing to me. By the way, Hillman should be owned in every league, even if you don't need to start him. He looks surprisingly good and he won't be losing his job any time soon.

3) Charles Sims (1.2 percent owned)
HUGE risk. I mean, he might not even play. Keep an eye on his status. As of right now, he hasn't been activated off the IR... But he is expected to be activated before the game on Sunday. The Buccaneers are desperate to find a running back they can trust. They're expected to give Sims a chance to show what he can do. If he shows ANY sign of being decent, they'll keep feeding him the ball. He's a big risk to start this week, but he's definitely worth a stash in deeper leagues (12 or more teams).

Wide Receiver

Last Week:
Me
WR
1Doug Baldwin6WR3
2Jordan Matthews4WR4
3Malcom Floyd5WR4
MB
1Doug Baldwin6WR3
2Andre Holmes12WR2
3Allen Robinson14WR2
Real
1Martavius Bryant20WR1
2Brandon LaFell18WR1
3Donte Moncrief17WR1
3John Brown17WR1
Meh. Matthew Berry got me here, although neither of us got the top WRs to pick up last week.

My suggestions for this week:
1) Andrew Hawkins (16 percent owned)
Tampa Bay is the worst fantasy-wise against WRs. Hawkins has separated himself as the definitive starter until Josh Gordon comes back in a few weeks. Jordan Cameron is probably out a week or 2, and that means the Browns will be leaning on Hawkins.

2) Stevie Johnson (5.9 percent owned)
Yes, THAT Stevie Johnson. A good opponent for Johnson to go up against and the Niners have been looking in his direction more as of late, including in the red zone.

3) Martavis Bryant
Bryant split WR2 duties with Markus Wheaton last week, but Bryant was the guy that Roethlisberger seemed to like more. I expect Bryant to get the nod more over Wheaton and that should mean his good production will continue.

Tight End

Last Week:
Me
TE
1Dwayne Allen8TE1
2Owen Daniels0Bust
3Charles Clay0Bust
MB
1Zach Ertz4Bust
2Owen Daniels0Bust
3Dwayne Allen8TE1
Real
1Heath Miller17TE1
2Tim Wright12TE1
3Dwayne Allen8TE1
3Mychal Rivera8TE1
3Luke Willson8TE1
Both Berry and I got Dwayne Allen, who continues to look good. Owen Daniels ended up not even playing. After I made my post last week, it was announced that Daniels had a knee scope. He didn't play last Sunday and he probably won't play this week.

My suggestions for this week:
1) Dwayne Allen (45.7 percent owned)
Why is he still available in so many leagues. He has made his way to 7th best fantasy TE for the season and he continues to be Andrew Luck's preferred TE target, especially in the red zone.

2) Larry Donnell (49.8 percent owned)
He's really only under 50% owned because he had a Bye last week... But he's just barely eligible for this list. Indianapolis struggles against TEs and Eli seems to like Donnell. Hopefully he learned over the Bye week how to hold onto the football.

3) Jace Amaro (2.3 percent owned)
I struggled to make this pick. Suggesting anyone from the Jets seems like a terrible idea... But, Amaro continues to be targeted a decent amount and the Chiefs have struggled at times against TEs. He's not the best looking TE to pick... But if Allen and Donnell are both taken in your league (and there's a decent chance they are), Amaro might be the guy for you... Just try not to throw up when you hit that submit button to make the add.

Defense/Special Teams

Last Week:
Me
Def
1Dolphins26DEF1
2Buccaneers1Bust
3Vikings20DEF1
MB
1Dolphins26DEF1
2Texans7DEF1
3Cowboys2Bust
Real
1Dolphins26DEF1
2Vikings20DEF1
3Browns11DEF1
Minor victory for me here. It looks like I was right about the Vikings. The only reason they didn't have a ton of fantasy points was because they went up against good offenses. They are a situational defense, but if they are playing a mediocre opponent, they are worth starting.

Also, as I have said the past 2 weeks and will continue to say weekly, starting a defense that is playing the Jaguars is always a good choice. That should be the #1 defense choice every single week. No exceptions. That team will always be in my suggestions list unless they are owned in too many leagues. Such is the case this week, as the Bengals are owned in 85.3 percent of leagues... But if you are in 1 of the leagues in the other 14.7 percent, pick them up immediately and start them.

My suggestions for this week:
1) Minnesota Vikings (9.9 percent owned)
Like I said before, Minnesota's defense is good. It's a less surprising pick now. Their 20 point week pushed them to 6th best fantasy defense this year... However, they still aren't owned in most leagues. They're playing Washington, and it looks like RG3 will be making his comeback. That adds a bit of risk, but I doubt RG3 will be himself in his 1st week back.

2) Cleveland Browns (22.1 percent owned)
This is a decent defense that has put up 2 straight good fantasy weeks. Admittedly, it was against 2 of the worst offenses in the league, Oakland and Jacksonville... But they go up against another bad offense, Tampa Bay. Expect another decent week.

3) Washington ThatTeamNameThatIGuessWe'reNotAllowedToSayAnymore (19.7 percent owned)
If Washington can stop the Cowboys from scoring more than 17 points, they should easily be able to handle Minnesota... And I know I suggested Bridgewater as an option at QB... But a rookie QB means there's a better chance for a Pick-6.

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